Jolly Sebermodel
- Estimates population size and abundance over time from marked individuals recaptured across surveys.
- Uses capture–mark–release and later recapture data to infer survival and movement patterns.
- Helps estimate populations without full censuses and informs conservation and management.
Definition
Section titled “Definition”The Jolly-Seber model is a statistical method used in population ecology to estimate the size and abundance of a population over time. It is based on the capture–recapture technique, where individuals are captured, marked, and released back into the population, and then recaptured at a later time to estimate the population size.
Explanation
Section titled “Explanation”The model relies on repeated capture, marking, release, and recapture of individuals. By tracking which marked individuals are later recaptured, researchers can estimate not only overall population size and abundance but also dynamics such as survival rates and movement patterns. Because it uses samples of marked individuals rather than complete counts, the Jolly-Seber model can reduce the need for costly and time-consuming census methods.
Examples
Section titled “Examples”Songbirds in a forest
Section titled “Songbirds in a forest”Researchers capture a sample of birds, mark them with unique identifiers, and release them back into the population. They then conduct several recapture surveys over the course of a year to track the movement and survival of the marked birds. Using the data from the recapture surveys, the Jolly-Seber model is used to estimate the population size and abundance of the songbirds in the forest.
Fish in a lake
Section titled “Fish in a lake”Researchers capture a sample of fish, mark them with tags, and release them back into the population. They then conduct several recapture surveys over the course of a year to track the movement and survival of the marked fish. The Jolly-Seber model is used to estimate the population size and abundance of the fish in the lake, as well as to identify any factors that may be impacting their survival and reproduction.
Use cases
Section titled “Use cases”- Estimating population size and abundance without full censuses.
- Inferring survival rates and movement patterns to inform conservation and management efforts.
Related terms
Section titled “Related terms”- Capture–recapture technique
- Survival rates
- Movement patterns
- Conservation and management