# Confidence Interval

## Confidence Interval :

A confidence interval is a range of values that is calculated from a sample dataset and is used to estimate the population parameter. It provides a measure of how certain we can be that the true population value lies within the calculated range.
For example, let’s say we want to estimate the average height of all the students in a particular school. We take a random sample of 100 students and measure their heights. The average height of the sample is 175 cm and the standard deviation is 5 cm.
We can use this sample to calculate a 95% confidence interval for the average height of all the students in the school. This interval would be calculated as 175 cm +/- 1.96 x (5 cm / √100), which gives us a range of 166.4 cm to 183.6 cm. This means that we can be 95% confident that the true average height of all the students in the school lies within this range.
Another example of a confidence interval is when we want to estimate the proportion of people in a population who have a particular trait. For instance, let’s say we want to estimate the proportion of adults in a city who are obese. We take a random sample of 1000 adults and find that 200 of them are obese.
We can use this sample to calculate a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of adults in the city who are obese. This interval would be calculated as 200/1000 +/- 1.96 x √(200/1000 x (1 – 200/1000)/1000), which gives us a range of 0.16 to 0.24. This means that we can be 95% confident that the true proportion of adults in the city who are obese lies within this range.
In both of these examples, the confidence interval provides a range of values that we can be certain the true population parameter lies within. This allows us to make more accurate estimates and predictions about the population based on the sample data.
It is important to note that the confidence interval is not a fixed value, but rather a range of values that is calculated based on the sample data and a chosen level of confidence. In our first example, if we wanted to be more certain about the true average height of the students in the school, we could choose a higher level of confidence, such as 99%, which would result in a wider range of values. On the other hand, if we were less certain and only wanted to be 90% confident, the range of values would be narrower.
Additionally, the size of the sample also plays a role in the confidence interval. In our second example, if we had taken a larger sample of 2000 adults, the confidence interval would have been narrower because we would have more data to work with.
It is also important to understand that the confidence interval is not a guarantee that the true population parameter will fall within the calculated range. There is always a chance that the true value may fall outside of the interval, but the higher the level of confidence chosen, the lower the probability of this happening.
Overall, the confidence interval is a useful tool for estimating population parameters and making predictions based on sample data. It provides a range of values that we can be confident the true population parameter lies within, allowing us to make more accurate estimates and predictions.