Informative prior :
Informative priors are a type of prior probability distribution used in Bayesian statistics. Unlike non-informative priors, which provide little to no information about the likelihood of certain events or outcomes, informative priors are based on existing data or knowledge about the subject under study. This allows for more accurate predictions and inference in Bayesian analysis.
One example of an informative prior is using past sales data to predict future sales of a product. In this scenario, the prior probability distribution would be based on the historical sales data, which would provide information about the likelihood of certain sales outcomes. For instance, if the past data shows that the product typically sells well during the holiday season but poorly in the summer, the informative prior would reflect this pattern and provide more accurate predictions of future sales.
Another example of an informative prior is using medical records to predict the likelihood of a patient developing a certain disease. In this case, the prior probability distribution would be based on the patient’s medical history, including any previous diagnoses, risk factors, and other relevant information. This information would provide insight into the likelihood of the patient developing the disease, allowing for more accurate predictions and treatment recommendations.
Informative priors are useful in Bayesian analysis because they provide additional information and context that can improve the accuracy of predictions and inferences. However, it is important to carefully consider the relevance and reliability of the data used to construct the informative prior, as this can impact the accuracy of the results. Additionally, overreliance on informative priors can lead to confirmation bias and hinder the ability to adapt to new information or changing circumstances.